Chapter 6 Multiple Choice Quiz

. A qualitative forecast

A. predicts the quality of a new product.

B. predicts the direction, but not the magnitude, of change in a variable.

C. is a forecast that is classified on a numerical scale from 1 (poor quality) to 10 (perfect quality).

D. is a forecast that is based on econometric methods.

. Which of the following is not a qualitative forecasting technique?

A. Surveys of consumer expenditure plans

B. Perspectives of foreign advisory councils

C. Consumer intention polling

D. Time-series analysis

. The first step in time-series analysis is to

A. perform preliminary regression calculations.

B. calculate a moving average.

C. plot the data on a graph.

D. identify relevant correlated variables.

. Forecasts are referred to as naive if they

A. are based only on past values of the variable.

B. are short-term forecasts.

C. are long-term forecasts.

D. generally result in incorrect forecasts.

. Time-series analysis is based on the assumption that

A. random error terms are normally distributed.

B. there are dependable correlations between the variable to be forecast and other independent variables.

C. past patterns in the variable to be forecast will continue unchanged into the future.

D. the data do not exhibit a trend.

. Which of the following is not one of the four types of variation that is estimated in time-series analysis?

A. Predictable

B. Trend

C. Cyclical

D. Irregular

. The cyclical component of time-series data is usually estimated using

A. linear regression analysis.

B. moving averages.

C. exponential smoothing.

D. qualitative methods.

. In time-series analysis, which source of variation can be estimated by the ratio-to-trend method?

A. Cyclical

B. Trend

C. Seasonal

D. Irregular

. If regression analysis is used to estimate the linear relationship between the natural logarithm of the variable to be forecast and time, then the slope estimate is equal to

A. the linear trend.

B. the natural logarithm of the rate of growth.

C. the natural logarithm of one plus the rate of growth.

D. the natural logarithm of the square root of the rate of growth.

. The use of a smoothing technique is appropriate when

A. random behavior is the primary source of variation.

B. seasonality is present.

C. data exhibit a strong trend.

D. all of the above are correct.

. The greatest smoothing effect is obtained by using

A. a moving average based on a small number of periods.

B. exponential smoothing with a small weight value.

C. the root-mean-square error.

D. the barometric method.

. The root-mean-square error is a measure of

A. sample size.

B. moving average periods.

C. exponential smoothing.

D. forecast accuracy.

. Barometric methods are used to forecast

A. seasonal variation.

B. secular trend.

C. cyclical variation.

D. irregular variation.

. A leading indicator is a measure that usually

A. changes at the same time and in the same direction as the general economy.

B. responds to a change in the general economy after a time lag.

C. changes in the same direction as the general economy before the general economy changes.

D. has all of the properties listed above.

. If 3 of the leading indicators move up, 2 move down, and the remaining 6 are constant, then the diffusion index is

A. 3/6 = 50%

B. 3/11 = 27%

C. 5/11 = 45%

D. 6/11 = 55%

. A single-equation econometric model of the demand for a product is a ________ equation in which the quantity demanded of the product is an ________ variable.

A. structural, exogenous

B. structural, endogenous

C. definitional, exogenous

D. definitional, endogenous

. A reduced form equation expresses

A. an exogenous variable as a function of endogenous variables.

B. an endogenous variable as a function of exogenous variables.

C. an exogenous variable as a function of both endogenous and exogenous variables.

D. an endogenous variable as a function of both exogenous and endogenous variables.

. Trend projection is an example of which kind of forecasting?

A. Qualitative

B. Time-series

C. Barometric

D. Econometric

. Turning points in the level of economic activity can be forecast by using

A. Time-series analysis

B. Exponential smoothing

C. Barometric methods

D. Moving average

. Econometric forecasts require

A. accurate estimates of the coefficients of structural equations.

B. forecasts of future values of exogenous variables.

C. appropriate theoretical models.

D. all of the above.

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