Exercise 10.1
1. In general, science is a way of searching for truth; technology is the production of products.
5. (1) Identify the problem or pose a question.
(2) Devise a hypothesis to explain the event or phenomenon.
(3) Derive a test implication or prediction.
(4) Perform the test.
(5) Accept or reject the hypothesis.
6. No. Induction cannot be the way that most hypotheses are formulated because they often contain concepts that aren’t in the data.
9. If H, then C.
C
Therefore, H.
Invalid.
13. Falsifiability is the property of a claim or hypothesis such that if a claim or hypothesis is falsifiable, it is in principle capable of being proven false through some observation. A claim or hypothesis that is not falsifiable is of little use because it has no real-world implications.
Exercise 10.2
1. Hypothesis: Multivitamins prevent colds.
Test implication: If multivitamins prevent colds, then colds will be less common among people who take multivitamins.
4. Hypothesis: All the world’s terrorists died on September 11, 2001, and their ranks have not been replenished.
Test implication: If all the world’s terrorists died on September 11 and their ranks have not been replenished, then solid intelligence should suggest that there are now no living terrorists anywhere.
7. Hypothesis: Unemployment causes some people to commit suicide.
Test implication: If unemployment causes some people to commit suicide, then suicide rates should also rise in other towns when major employers close.
10. Hypothesis: Eilidh has COVID-19.
Test implication: If Eilidh has COVID-19, then a saliva test should indicate the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus associated with COVID-19).
Exercise 10.4
3. Test implication: If the J-Ray bracelet emits energy that improves athletic performance, then the device should pass a series of controlled tests. In each test, a group of individuals—half wearing a J-Ray and half not wearing one—would compete in an athletic event (for example, running a 100m race). If the J-Ray really works, the people wearing it should perform better. The tests would likely disconfirm the theory.
5. Test implication: If elephants cannot climb stairs, then a hungry elephant will not climb a small set of stairs to get to a source of food. The tests would likely disconfirm the theory.
8. Test implication: If it’s true that your uncle can read people’s minds, then he should be able to fairly reliably tell people what random number or colour they are thinking of. The observations would likely disconfirm the theory (since no one, ever, has been shown to have that ability).
Exercise 10.7
1. It is unreasonable to reject an extraordinary claim solely because of its weirdness because occasionally extraordinary claims—such as Einstein’s claim that gravity could bend light—turn out to be true.
3. It is unreasonable to conclude that a phenomenon is paranormal just because you cannot think of a natural explanation because your own inability might simply reflect your own lack of knowledge or the fact that you haven’t thought about the matter hard enough.
7. Something is physically impossible if it violates a law of science; something is physically possible if it does not violate a law of science. If our understanding of the laws of science were to change, then our understanding of what is physically possible would also change.
9. It is physically possible that cow-like things with wings could have evolved, but quite unlikely: they would have to be physically unlike cows in many ways (since actual cows are so heavy, and flying animals have evolved to be quite light for their size).
10. It is logically possible that cows (or cow-like things) can fly.
Exercise 10.8
1. Theory 1: It’s a coincidence.
Theory 2: My boss heard about my trip to Madame Mavis and her prediction and fake-fired me as a prank.
Theory 3: Madame Mavis has real psychic powers.
4. Theory 1: Cats sit in windows often. Guests are bound to show up occasionally during the times a cat is sitting in the window.
Theory 2: People behave differently when company is coming (for example, they might tidy their houses, cook food, and so on). Cats notice this behaviour, and start to understand that it means company is coming.
Theory 3: Cats have psychic abilities.
8. Theory 1: Reginald has a brain tumor.
Theory 2: Reginald had a stroke.
Theory 3: Reginald is possessed by demons.