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3) Has Germany become a hegemon in the EU or will the Franco-German tandem reassert itself?
See section 29.3
- There is widespread belief that France and Germany have long been the motors of European integration. This was particularly the case prior to the first enlargement in 1973.
- It remains difficult to conceive of any significant development in the EU without France and Germany being involved.
- Since German unification and the creation of the euro (very much along the lines proposed by Germany) German hegemony appears to have been consolidated.
- The role taken by Chancellor Merkel and Germany in general, and especially during the euro crisis and the relatively less prominent role by recent French Presidents, suggests that German hegemony is increasing.
- The election of President Macron in France in 2017 on a pro-EU ticket and the relatively poor performance of Chancellor Merkel’s coalition government in recent parliamentary elections may indicate a reversal of German hegemony and French resurgence in the leadership of the EU.
- Even so, one should not underestimate the influence of other member states in affecting the future of the EU. Challenges from Italian, Hungarian, and Polish governments around economic governance, the rule of law, and migration policy suggest that German hegemony on Europe is not absolute.