Strategy and Defence Planning by Colin S. Gray, with introduction

  No matter where they are located, ministries of defence have one thing in common: they are all pre-occupied with selecting forces, weapons, and strategies to achieve future national, or sometimes even internationally shared, security objectives. As Colin Gray points out, however, this task creates a conundrum because it is impossible to state with certainty what issues might drive future conflict, who will be the opponent, or what forces, weapons, and tactics might be encountered on some battlefield. Gray offers no crystal ball to help defence planners, although he recommends that they cautiously turn to history for insights into the problems approaching on the strategic horizon. Nevertheless, he offers several principles for planning. Most importantly, he suggests that strategists must recognize that their plans will be flawed in one way or another, and that adaptability, flexibility, and a tolerance for error need to characterize preparations for future defence.

  This chapter, published in the 6^th edition of Strategy in the Contemporary World in 2018, is a fine example of how Colin Gray approached issues of strategy, war, peace, and international relations. It explores how a mundane and rather obvious, if often unacknowledged, issue can sow the seeds of future strategic failure. As the impact of Moore’s law accelerates innovation and unpredictable changes across myriad scientific and commercial applications, Gray’s admonition to integrate adaptability, flexibility, and tolerance for error into strategic planning remains highly relevant.

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