Chapter 13, Level 1 Self-Quiz: I

. Apply Bayes's formula to the following situation:
Imagine that a researcher gathers data on a new test for high school seniors, the Multiphasic Aptitude Diagnostic (MAD) test. He wants to determine whether scoring above 1200 on the MAD test is a good predictor of graduating college with a GPA greater than 3.5. He calculates that 70% of the students who graduated with a GPA greater than 3.5 scored above 1200 on the MAD test. The data also indicate that 25% of students who did not graduate with a GPA greater than 3.5 scored above 1200 on the MAD test. The percentage of students who graduated with a GPA greater than 3.5 was 10%.
Is scoring above 1,200 on the MAD test a good predictor of graduating college with a GPA greater than 3.5?

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