One of the main, though under-reported and poorly understood lessons
from the 2019 Canadian election involve the dismal showing
of the people's party of Canada.
And what this tells us about Canadian politics and society.
Led by Maxime Bernier, a one-time cabinet minister
in the conservative government of Stephen Harper.
This party was created in 2018,
about thirteen months before the October, 2019 election.
The party managed to field a candidate in all of the countries
three hundred and thirty eight ridings.
Its leader was on stage with the other national party leaders
for the French and English televised campaign debates.
And the party finished with less than two percent of the national vote,
and not a single seat in the house of commons.
The reason why this is not the end of the story is
because the people's party of Canada was the only national party
of any significance to present Canadians with an ideological orientation
and policies that could be described as populist.
In fact, the party's orientation in policies were more accurately
characterized
as a mix of libertarianism, fiscal conservatism, and populist elements.
Indeed, in some respects that people's party of Canada didn't seem
so very different from the young reform party,
when that party burst onto the scene in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Less regulation of business, lower taxes,
concerned about government spending,
reservations about non-economic immigration, and about multiculturalism,
support for more spending on defence,
and a tone which suggested, strongly suggested,
that Canadian politics had been hijacked by elites.
These were some of the ways in which the message of the people's party
of Canada resembled that of the reform party.
The abysmal failure of the people's party of Canada to create
more than a ripple across the waters of Canadian politics
in the 2019 election
can certainly be ascribed to multiple factors.
Most interesting, however, is why the populist message the party delivered
received such a cold reception from Canadians.
The obvious answer might seem to be because populism has no serious
traction in Canadian political culture.
End of story.
And yet in the months and years before the 2019 election,
the conventional wisdom among political pundits, pollsters,
and academic observers of the Canadian political scene was that populism
was on the rise in Canada
and that it had reached levels as high, or higher,
than in many other Western democracies.
Before we go any further perhaps we need to make clear
what we mean by populism.
The Oxford dictionary defines populism as quote,
“a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people
who feel their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.”
Unquote.
Allan Gregg, a principal at the Earnscliffe Strategy Group,
and for many years one of Canada's most respected pollsters,
and political analysts adds the following,
for populism and populace to find support
there needs to be an environment of distrust in politicians and institutions.
A feeling that government serves interests other than those of the people.
A sense of frustration over the direction of government,
and a sense of fear of being left behind in a changing world.
In the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the 2016
American presidential election
observers of Canadian politics began to ask
whether Trump's style populism might take root in Canada.
By 2017, there was a growing sense,
if not quite a consensus, that many Canadians were indeed ripe
for a populist message
and that they were increasingly concerned by issues of immigration,
identity politics,
and a sense that elites were indifferent to their views and interests.
Consider some of these headlines from national media organizations
and the media releases of some major Canadian polling firms.
Yes, Trump's style populism could happen in Canada, here's why.
Angus Reid, November, 2017.
Half of Canadians want immigration levels decreased according to poll.
iPolitics, August, 2018.
Why the explosive debate over asylum seekers could define
the next federal election.
Maclean's, August, 2018.
Increased polarization on attitudes to immigration reshaping
the political landscape in Canada.
ECOS, April, 2019.
Canadians are primed for some Trump style populism.
Maclean's, May, 2019.
Is Canada right for populism,
and is this necessarily bad?
Earnscliffe Strategy Group, May, 2019.
Polls show many Canadians disconnected from democracy,
vulnerable to populace.
Vancouver Sun.
August, 2019.
Now some of these stories about the growth of popular sentiment
among Canadians appeared just months before the October 21,
2019 election.
Almost all of them were alarmist in tone, expressing fears
that Canada was heading the direction of what social scientists tend to call
an authoritarian and nativist style of populism
that has gained support in recent years in such countries
as the United States, Germany, France, the UK, Poland, Italy and Hungary.
To understand why this belief that populist sentiment was increasing
in Canada and why this belief became so widely held,
it is useful to look at some of the survey data on which it was based.
A survey conducted by the Montreal based polling firm CROP in April, 2017,
asked a representative sample of Canadians how likely
it was that they would vote for a candidate
who made the following four promises,
all of which are thought of as populous policies.
These were, close borders substantially to immigrants and refugees,
make the protection of our national identity a priority,
not be at the service of the rich, the powerful, and the elite of the country,
really worked for the country's middle-class.
A combined total of sixty percent of respondents said that they were very,
or somewhat likely to vote for such a candidate.
twenty six percent said that they were very likely to support a candidate
who ran on such policies,
compared to only sixteen percent who said that they were not at all likely
to support such a candidate.
That same year an Angus Reid survey found that seven in ten,
about seven in ten Canadians agreed that visible minorities needed
to do more to fit into the mainstream of Canadian society.
About half said that Canadian policies toward refugees
and asylum seekers were quote,
“too generous,” unquote.
And about one in four supported a ban on Syrian refugees coming
to Canada.
Similar sentiments were echoed in other surveys.
For example, since 2011, several surveys by the polling firm ECOS
have shown that an average of four in ten Canadians believe
that too many immigrants are members of visible minorities.
A 2019 survey by the strengthening Canadian democracy project
at Simon Fraser university found that about seven in ten Canadians agree
with the statement elected officials don't care what people like me think.
Six and ten agree that the interests of ordinary Canadians are ignored
by government in favour of the establishment,
and almost eight and ten said they would be more likely
to vote for a candidate
who stood up for common people against the elite.
Add all this to the fact that a spring 2017 survey by the Ipsos polling firm
found that two thirds of Canadians agreed with the statement,
Canada needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich
and powerful.
And four out of ten agreed that to fix the country we need a strong leader
willing to break the rules.
Yes, four out of ten agreed.
When we look at all this one comes away with a picture
of the Canadian public that as Maclean's magazine put it
a few months before the election was, primed for populism.
On the strength of these numbers this might've seemed
to reasonable conclusion,
but context is always important in making sense of survey data.
So, let's provide a bit of context for this data
on support for populism in Canada.
First, the percentage of Canadians expressing what are generally
considered to be populous views
turns out to be the same in most Western democracies.
Some of which have experienced the emergence of influential populous
political parties and others that have not.
Indeed, according to the 2019 international Ipsos poll that was mentioned
a moment ago,
Canadian and American views are pretty much identical
on whether traditional parties and politicians care
about what average people think.
Whether the economy is rigged in favour of the rich and powerful,
whether a strong leader is needed to take back control from elites,
and whether immigrants take away jobs and social services from real,
yes, the question used the word real, Canadians.
So why has populism achieved greater political success
in the United States and some other democracies then in Canada?
Frank Graves, president of EKOS research has been among those
who offer a possible explanation.
As elsewhere, he says, including in the United States, populism in Canada
is most attractive among those who believe that society and the country
are headed in the wrong direction.
Among those who are pessimistic about their future
and that of their children
and those who feel threatened by the changes associated
with globalization.
But unlike in the United States, France, Germany, the UK,
and other countries in which popular sentiment has been on the rise
in recent years,
in Canada the sentiment largely lacks the anti-immigration
and racial dimensions
that are associated with populism in some other countries.
Canadian support from multiculturalism is said to vaccinate them
against the appeal of populism.
Graves and others who make this argument may be correct.
On the other hand, this polling from EKOS reports
that in several surveys taken since 2010,
an average of fourty percent of Canadians agree
that of immigrants coming to Canada,
too many are members of visible minorities.
And in Ontario, where more immigrants locate than in any other province,
fourty six percent agreed when this question was asked in April, 2019.
Several points higher than the national figure.
Moreover, the 2019 Ipsos international survey found
that half of Canadians agreed that quote, “when jobs are scarce,
employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants.
And four in ten agreed that quote,
“immigrants take important social services away from real Canadians.”
Unquote.
Pretty much the same numbers found among Americans,
Brits, Germans, and the French.
The fact that the views of Canadians appear to be broadly
similar to those of national populations in Western democracies
in which populism has made end roads during elections,
does not mean, however, we should expect Canadians to be primed
for populism as so many predicted leading up to the 2019 election.
Canadians, notwithstanding what they tell pollsters about elites being out
of touch and the system being rigged in favour of the wealthy
and the powerful,
also tell pollsters
that they have a good deal of trust in their country's institutions.
Indeed, they express higher levels of trust,
especially more educated Canadians,
than do the citizens of almost any other affluent democracy.
The annual Edelman Trust Barometer, google it if you'd like to know more,
finds that trust in government among Canadians is considerably
higher than among Americans Brits, Germans and the French.
The same is true when it comes to trust in the media
and trust in business.
Although in the case of business, Americans are about as trusting
as Canadians.
Overall, the 2019 Edelman report finds the Canadian score higher
on its trust index than the citizens of any other affluent democracy,
and that this level of trust has actually increased over
the past several years.
There is, however, a significant gap
between trust levels among more educated Canadians,
among whom trust is significantly higher,
and those who are less educated.
Let's go back to where we began.
Pollsters, pundits, and many professors saw a rise in populist sentiment
in Canada during the years leading up to the 2019 election.
And yet during the campaign,
there was little real evidence that populist issues,
and the anger toward elites that typically is associated with populism,
played much of a role.
On election day, the only political party that had offered Canadians
what might broadly be described as a populous message,
the people's party of Canada, barely appeared on the radar screen.
Receiving the support of fewer than two
of every one hundred Canadians who voted.
We don't know for certain why populism has thus far had a negligible
impact on voting and the national party system in Canada.
Despite the fact that the usual measures of populist sentiment
are about the same in this country as in others
where populism has shaken up the political scene.
But we do know this, politics is a lot of moving parts.
It is clear looking back at the incorrect predictions that populism
would be a factor in the 2019 Canadian election
that too much attention was paid to some of these parts
and perhaps not enough to others.