Debriefing
Results from this experiment have everything to do with wording and nothing to do with ‘logic’. For each scenario, the expected outcome for each alternative was the same: if option A was 100% chance of a gain of $100 then option B was a 50% chance at gaining $200 which had the same expected gain of $100; alternatively if option A was a 100% chance of a loss of $50, then option B had a 50% chance of losing $100 with the same expected loss of $50. Whether a participant chooses the risky option (not a ‘sure thing’) depends on whether the question is worded as a ‘gain’ or a ‘loss’. As you can see in the typical data, when a choice involves a ‘gain’ (more money, more lives saved), participants tend to be risk averse and choose the option that is a ‘sure thing’. However, when there is a chance of ‘loss’ (loss of money, death), participants are much more willing to take a chance to avoid it or be risk seeking. This pattern of risk aversion and risk seeking behaviour has been replicated in many different scenarios and is very robust.