2-4-6 Task
In this lab, you will do an activity based on a paradigm known as the Wason 2-4-6 task (Wason, 1960). It is important not to read about what this task was developed to explore before you finish it. For now, you should just know that it is a problem-solving task that has two parts.
Uncovering Patterns
In part one of this activity, your job is to uncover a pattern governing a sequence of 3 digits. You will do this by entering 3 additional digits. You can enter 3 additional digits at least a total of 5 times and you will receive immediate feedback about whether your numbers reflect the pattern. You will do this at least 5 times but are free to do it more than 5 times to help you guess the rule.
Let us start with an initial sequence that is 2-4-6.
Here is an example of different entries made after being presented with those 3 digits and the feedback received for each:
8-10-12: matches rule
1-2-3: matches rule
1-3-5: matches rule
1-3-2: does not match rule
1-10-100: matches rule
Can you guess the rule underlying the initial sequence 2-4-6 based on the additional entries and the feedback?
Figuring Out the Rule
For 2-4-6, the rule governing the sequence of numbers was simply “Each digit is larger than the one before it”. A critical response for figuring out this rule was the entry 1-3-2 with the feedback that it did not match the rule. That is because it included a decreasing digit at the end. Some participants are initially convinced that the rule is “Even digits in ascending order” but if they never submit a pattern that includes a decrease or an odd number then they will not discover this.
Confirmation Bias
The real point of this experiment is not to show that people can guess the rule governing a sequence of digits but to demonstrate that people tend only to seek out information that confirms their hypothesis, which is known as confirmation bias. In the results presented after you enter all of your sequences, you can see that the global average shows more “yes” feedback than “no” feedback and your pattern of responses may show this unbalance as well. In fact, in the example provided above more confirming patterns were input than disconfirming patterns, but the one pattern that did not match the rule went a long way in figuring out that the pattern was simply each digit only needs to be larger than the one before it.
The Problem of Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias occurs when an individual only seeks information that is consistent with a working hypothesis with no consideration for information that may disprove the hypothesis. While harmless in artificial settings (like this activity), it can have very important real-world implications. Scientists who only design experiments to confirm their theories but not refute them will not make groundbreaking discoveries because falsifying theories is critical to good science. Unfortunately, the 2-4-6 task has demonstrated that most people have a tendency to confirm their current hypothesis but not attempt to find evidence to discredit their hypothesis. Someone who is convinced that vaccines are dangerous and only looks up information that confirms what they already believe is demonstrating confirmation bias and will not be swayed in believing vaccines can be beneficial. Throughout history confirmation bias has had negative impacts. In the famous Salem witch trials, prosecutors sought out only evidence that the accused were witches, not evidence indicating otherwise. Did the women get a fair trial and outcome? Of course not, due to the inability of their peers to avoid confirmation bias.